 Photo: Paul Nelson
Things should begin to take shape after this weekend's games but even after this week, not a single team in the MAC East will technically have enough wins to reach bowl eligibility as the two front runners, Buffalo and Miami, own overall records of 4-5, meaning the winner of their head-to-head match Saturday will only improve to 5-5. With a loss, Miami is likely out of the race with losses to Buffalo and Temple but a win would put them in the driver's seat since their only divisional loss would be against the Owls who already have two losses within the division. A win however by the Bulls would give them a significant cushion, and a near lock on the MAC East title, as every other team in the MAC East would have at least two divisional losses.
With Temple battling Ohio and Bowling Green facing Akron this weekend, at least two of those MAC East teams will fall out of contention with three divisional losses (joining idle Kent State) while the victors, with two divisional losses, will still need some assistance to claim a divisional title. Therefore, all eyes will be on Oxford this Saturday as the Bulls and RedHawks' match could essentially be for the MAC East crown.
The MAC West race is still Central Michigan's to lose. The Chippewas (5-4, 3-0, 4-0) are off until Tuesday when they face longstanding rival Western Michigan in Kalamazoo.
The Broncos, with two divisional losses (to Eastern Michigan and Ball State), are on the brink of being eliminated as is Toledo if they fall to Eastern Michigan Saturday. The race in the MAC West essentially is a three-horse derby with the Chippewas leading by a good margin followed by Ball State and then Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals though, by virtue of their loss earlier this season to CMU, need Central Michigan to lose twice, against both Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan, to have a shot at the MAC West crown while Eastern Michigan (whose only divisional loss is to Ball State) needs to win out against Toledo and Central Michigan and hope that Toledo can defeat the Cardinals in Muncie on November 13. Toledo has an outside shot, but with losses already to both Western Michigan and Central Michigan, are a longshot at best at this stage.
While this all makes for interesting discussion, let's boil it down. With a win in their next game, Central Michigan in the MAC West, and either Miami or Buffalo in the MAC East, would be the odds-on favorites for a berth in the MAC championship game on December 1.
We won't even get into the full tie-breaker formula, but if you are a true masochist, we offer you this link for a full explanation.
McRae Joins the 4,000 Club
 Ohio senior tailback Kalvin McRae rushed for 200 yards in the Bobcats' 38-27 win over Bowling Green Saturday and in the process became the Bobcats' all-time career leader with 4,026 yards rushing.
McRae has rushed for 1,062 yards this season and his sixteen touchdowns are tops among all MAC running backs so far this year.
McRae also became only the eleventh running back in the history of the Mid-American Conference to record over 4,000 yards rushing.
|
Player
|
School
|
Yards
|
Years
|
|
1) Travis Prentice
|
Miami
|
5,596
|
1996-99
|
|
2) Garrett Wolfe
|
Northern Illinois
|
5,164
|
2004-06
|
|
3) Michael Turner
|
Northern Illinois
|
4,941
|
2000-03
|
|
4) Chester Taylor
|
Toledo
|
4,659
|
1998-01
|
|
5) Deland McCullough
|
Miami
|
4,368
|
1992-95
|
|
6) Robert Sanford
|
Western Michigan
|
4,219
|
1997-00
|
|
7) Jerome Persell
|
Western Michigan
|
4,190
|
1976-78
|
|
8) George Swarm
|
Miami
|
4,172
|
1983-86
|
|
9) Curtis Adams
|
Central Michigan
|
4,162
|
1981-84
|
|
10) Kalvin McRae
|
Ohio
|
4,026
|
2004-07
|
|
11) Marcus Merriweather
|
Ball State
|
4,002
|
1999-02
|
Source: Mid-American Conference
MAC Players in Top Ten in NCAA Offensive Rankings
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Rushing
|
|
|
|
5. Eugene Jarvis
|
Kent State
|
139.9
|
|
9. Jalen Parmele
|
Toledo
|
126.4
|
|
All-Purpose Yards
|
|
|
|
4. Jalen Parmele
|
Toledo
|
198.0
|
|
9. Dante Love
|
Ball State
|
188.7
|
|
Total Offense
|
|
|
|
6. Dan LeFevour
|
Central Michigan
|
317.6
|
|
Scoring
|
|
|
|
3. Kalvin McRae
|
Ohio
|
11.3
|
|
Receptions Per Game
|
|
|
|
5. Jamarko Simmons
|
Western Michigan
|
8.33
|
Source: NCAA
GAME PREVIEWS
It's crunch time in the MAC with five games on the docket for this weekend including four crucial intra-divisional races that will go a long way toward deciding the divisional races.
Friday, November 2
Temple (3-5, 3-2 MAC) at Ohio (4-5, 2-3 MAC), 7:00 pm ET
Site: Peden Stadium
Series: First Meeting
Outlook: Both teams enter the game with new signal-callers at the helm; one by choice and the other out of necessity. The Owls' starting QB, Adam DiMichele, is sidelined for the season after suffering a fractured left tibia against Miami two weeks ago. Temple was idle last week but comes into Athens riding a three-game winning streak. Taking over at QB for the Owls is Vaughn Charlton who also appeared in eight games last season so the Owls are not necessarily lacking experience at quarterback despite the loss of DiMichele. Maybe even more importantly though, during their three-game winning streak the Owls' defense has allowed just 17.3 points per game and posses the MAC's second-rated pass defense and rush defense which will surely be tested by the Bobcats' Kalvin McRae. McRae rushed for 200 yards in Ohio's 38-27 win over Bowling Green Saturday and QB Theo Scott got his first start after relieving starter Brad Bower the week before in Ohio's 43-40 setback at Toledo. The Bobcats have won two of their last three games and are averaging better than 38 points over their last three contests. The Owls are 1-3 away from the cavernous confines of Lincoln Financial Field but Ohio is only 2-2 at home so home field may not play a major factor here, however, Kalvin McRae will. McRae seems to have kicked his game into high gear and the Bobcats' running attack could be just enough to squeeze out a home win.
Prediction: Ohio 23, Temple 17.
Akron (3-5, 2-2 MAC) at Bowling Green (4-4, 2-2 MAC), 7:30 pm ET
Site: Doyt Perry Stadium
Series: Bowling Green leads 8-7 (Last meeting: Akron 35, Bowling Green 28).
Television: ESPNU
Outlook: A couple of weeks ago this game was setting up as potentially being one that would decide the winner of the MAC East but both teams have stumbled badly down the stretch with Akron dropping back-to-back divisional games against Temple and Buffalo while Bowling Green has dropped two of its last three divisional games. Both teams will need significant help to get back into the race. The Zips got a lift last week with the surprise return of DB John Mackey who was thought to have been lost for the season but Mackey's return was not enough. The Zips offense ranks last in the MAC, averaging only 293.4 yards per game and outside of WR Jabari Arthur, who is second in the MAC with 95.6 yards receiving per game, has been completely ineffective this season, scoring barely above 19 points per game, 11th overall in the MAC. The Falcons meanwhile have been probably the most inconsistent team in the MAC, looking like world beaters one week and then crashing and burning the following week, much as they did against Ohio at home in their most recent setback. To make matters a bit more dicey for the Falcons, BG may be without freshman RB Willie Geter who suffered a sprained ankle against the Bobcats and may also be without leading WR and return man Corey Partridge due to a thumb injury. QB Tyler Sheehan has struggled lately but BG still possesses the MAC's top passing offense, averaging 300 yards per game which presents an intriguing matchup, facing Akron, the MAC's top passing defense, allowing only 198.5 yards per game through the air. Both teams are struggling and if it weren't for their last second miracle finish at Western Michigan, the Zips would be on a four-game losing streak. Not much confidence in choosing either side here, but we will go with the Falcons at home.
Prediction: Bowling Green 28, Akron 24.
Saturday, November 3
Ball State (5-4, 3-2 MAC) at Indiana (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten), Noon ET
Site: Memorial Stadium
Series: Indiana leads 3-0 (Last meeting: Indiana 24, Ball State 23 in 2006).
Television: Big Ten Network
Outlook: Ball State will be playing its second straight Big Ten opponent on the road following last week's 28-17 setback at Illinois. Last season the Cardinals held a 23-7 halftime lead at home against the Hoosiers before falling 24-23. Ball State QB Nate Davis had a relatively quiet game last week but still tops the MAC, averaging 272.6 yards per game and in passing efficiency with 21 TD passes and only four interceptions. The usually high-flying Cardinals offense could find pay-dirt frequently against an Indiana defense that has surrendered 121 points in three straight losses to Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin. The Cards are putting up an average of 439 yards in offense per game. Both teams would become bowl eligible with a victory. Hoosiers' QB Kellen Lewis and the Indiana offense have committed nine turnovers during their recent three-game losing streak while the Cardinals lead the MAC in turnover margin at +1.33 and have committed only eight turnovers all season. The Cards area 0-36 all-time against BCS teams but that losing streak could very well end in Bloomington.
Prediction: Ball State 34, Indiana 31.
Buffalo (4-5, 4-1 MAC) at Miami (4-5, 3-1 MAC), 3:00 pm ET
Site: Yager Stadium
Series: Miami leads 9-0 (Last meeting: Miami 38, Buffalo 31 in 2006).
Outlook: Every week we seem to ask are the Buffalo Bulls for real and every week the Bulls seem to answer that question. This week the Bulls travel to Miami, a team that has perplexed us all year with its up and down season, with first place in the MAC East on the line. The Bulls come into Oxford having won three of their last four games with their only loss in that stretch against Syracuse. The Bulls, whose four wins this season are an all-time high since Buffalo moved up to Division 1A in 1999, have been getting it done with a tenacious, ball-hawking defense and an offense that has taken care of the ball. LB Trevor Scott tops the MAC in forced fumbles and is second in QB sacks. Buffalo QB Drew Willy is third in the MAC in passing efficiency with ten touchdowns and six interceptions while Bulls' RB James Starks has ten touchdowns on the year, tied for second among MAC running backs. The RedHawks meanwhile have lost two straight after defeating Bowling Green 47-17, falling on the road to Temple (24-17) and at Vanderbilt last week, 24-13. Daniel Raudabaugh has assumed the starting duties at QB for the RedHawks and has passed for over 200 yards in three straight games while the RedHawks defense pounced on the Commodores to produce three turnovers but Miami could not produce enough offense to take advantage of the Vandy miscues. The RedHawks possess the MAC's top scoring defense, allowing 25.8 points per game. Miami's ground attack however has suffered with the loss of Brandon Murphy and Austin Sykes and is averaging less than 130 yards per game (10th MAC) and will be facing the MAC's third-ranked rushing defense. Buffalo is 1-3 on the road while Miami is 2-1 at home, including a win over Syracuse. We are still not ready to christen the Bulls as champs but a win here and we may have no choice as the winner will control its own road to the MAC Championship Game.
Prediction: Miami 27, Buffalo 20.
Eastern Michigan (3-6, 2-2 MAC) at Toledo (4-5, 2-3 MAC), 7:00 pm ET
Site: Glass Bowl
Series: Toledo Leads 23-11 (Last meeting: Eastern Michigan 17, Toledo 13 in 2006).
Outlook: The football fortunes of the Eagles are slowly changing and EMU will be playing a rare, meaningful game in November. Eastern Michigan comes into its divisional matchup at the Glass Bowl after defeating Western Michigan 19-2. With only one divisional loss, the Eagles remain in contention in the MAC West and have been getting it done with a tenacious defense that is allowing 26.4 points per game (3rd MAC) and tops the MAC with 23 takeaways. Offensively, the running game finally came to life last week for the Eagles behind tailback Pierre Walker's 151 yards rushing. Eagles' QB Andy Schmitt is expected to play after getting his bell rung against Western Michigan and being replaced by freshman Kyle McMahon. While the Eagles have been relying on their defense, the Rockets have been blistering opposing defenses, averaging a MAC best 34.8 points per game and 449 yards in offense. Toledo set a MAC record last week with 812 yards of offense, including nearly 400 yards passing and five touchdowns from QB Aaron Opelt, in defeating Northern Illinois, 70-21. But as prolific as the Rockets have been on offense, they have been equally porous on defense, allowing a MAC-worst 40.4 points per game and surrendering 447 yards per contest, split nearly equally between rushing yards (220) and passing yards (227) per game. The Rockets divisional hopes are on life-support but they still have a chance to become bowl eligible with a strong finish and have won three of their last four games, including two straight in the MAC. The Eagles have not won at the Glass Bowl since 1999 but the Eagles appear to be on a mission toward respectability and even, potentially, a shot at the MAC West title, following a dominating performance against Western Michigan and a strong game in a loss to Northwestern. We all know the old coach's adage about defense winning ballgames and this game will surely test that presumed truism. Points will be scored at the Glass Bowl, but not enough for the Rockets to prevail.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 37, Toledo 34.
On Tap
The schedule for the week ahead:
Tuesday, November 6
Central Michigan at Western Michigan, 7:30 pm ET
Wednesday, November 7
Ohio at Akron, 7:30 pm ET
Friday, November 9
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan, 7:30 pm ET
Saturday, November 10
Penn State at Temple, Noon ET
Kent State at Northern Illinois, 4:00 pm ET
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