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 Ball State QB Nate Davis
Toledo (5-5, 3-3 MAC) at Ball State (5-5, 3-2 MAC), 7:30 pm ET
Site: Scheumann Stadium
Series: Toledo Leads 16-15-1 (Last meeting: Ball State 20, Toledo 17 in 2006).
Television: ESPN2
 Scouting Toledo: Toledo comes into its meeting with Ball State riding a three-game winning streak during which they have averaged 55 points and 628 yards of offense per game. However those three wins have come against teams with a combined record of 10-22. The Rockets' current winning streak coincides with the return of starting quarterback Aaron Opelt from injury. During Toledo's recent three-game winning streak, Opelt has passed for 867 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions and has found two solid targets in wide receivers Stephen Williams, who is third in the MAC with 956 yards receiving, and Nick Moore who has caught six touchdowns in eight games. Rockets RB Jalen Parmele has also been a key factor in the Rockets' top-ranked MAC rushing offense and is second in the MAC with 1,306 yards rushing and tops all MAC running backs with 15 touchdowns. Defensively however the Rockets continue to struggle to keep teams off the board and are allowing a MAC-worst 39.2 points per game (115th nationally) and 444 yards of offense per game, 12th in the MAC and 100th nationally. The Rockets are also last in the MAC in getting after the opposing quarterback, recording only nine sacks in ten games. Special teams though have been solid this year for the Rockets. Toledo punter Brett Kern is third in the nation, averaging 45.96 yards per punt. Placekicker Alex Steigerwald is a perfect 10-10 in FG attempts.
 Scouting Ball State: The Cardinals, who were idle last week, return home for the first time since defeating Western Kentucky 35-12 on October 20. Since that time Ball State has played three consecutive road games, winning on the road against Western Michigan but dropping their last two games against Illinois (28-17) and Indiana (38-20). The Cardinals rank second in the MAC (behind Toledo) in total offense, averaging 436.4 yards per game behind sophomore quarterback Nate Davis who tops the MAC in passing yards and passing efficiency, having thrown 22 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Davis' favorite targets each reside in the top ten in the MAC in receiving yards per game with Dante Love second in the MAC, averaging 96.6 yards per game and tight end Darius Hill ninth, averaging 69.7 yards per game. Love also tops the MAC in all-purpose yards,averaging 198.3 yards per game. The Cardinals ground game has struggled since starter MiQuale Lewis, who was averaging 111.6 yards per game, went down with an injury earlier in the season. Freshman Frank Edmonds has since assumed the starting tailback duties but is averaging only 46.6 yards per game. But the Cardinals haven't been all about offense as the Cards also possess the MAC's second-ranked scoring defense, allowing 27.5 points per game, and top the conference in turnover margin with 23 takeaways and only 10 turnovers. Junior linebacker Bryant Haines is fourth in the MAC in tackles and sophomore DE Brandon Crawford tops the MAC in forced fumbles. Like Toledo, Ball State has one of the nation's top punters in preseason All-American Chris Miller who currently ranks second in the nation, averaging 46.18 yards per punt. An area of ongoing concern though has been field goal conversions. Placekicker Jake Hogue ranks tenth in the MAC, converting on only 11-19 FG attempts.
Forecast: Both teams should have plenty of incentive with a potential bowl bid on the line and a national TV audience tuning in on ESPN2. The Rockets have been impressive over the past three weeks but their defense is still extremely suspect while the Cardinals appear to be the more-rounded team at this juncture. The national TV audience should be entertained by a relatively high-scoring affair but the Cardinals, with a better defense and a more challenging schedule over the past few weeks, appear to have the edge here. However, if the game comes down to a field goal, the Cards could be in trouble.
Prediction: Ball State 43, Toledo 38.
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