 House of Horrors?
Axiom #1: Quicken Loans Arena is a house of horrors for the top seed.
WKNR announcers are fond of reminding listeners- often- that the #1 is a vulnerable target. This probably stems from Miami's giant-killing ways in 2000 and 2001, taking down regular season champions Bowling Green and Central Michigan in the quarterfinals in consecutive tournaments. However, after that, the top seed cruised to the tournament title the next three years and have won five total out of a possible nine. Winning five of the last seven is a pretty good track record. And since Central Michigan's loss in 2001, no top seed has lost in the quarterfinals. The #1 seed, ergo, is no paper tiger.
The seed you do not want coming into the tournament is the third seed; the #3 has yet to capture the title and has only made the final twice. Nobody tell Reggie Witherspoon.
Axiom #2: Anyone can just get hot and win.
In other words, "Tournament week is all that matters" or, "My team has sucked this year, but I'm going to ignore that and claim the previous four months were an elaborate practice." Could not be further from the truth. As established above, winning the regular season championship positions a team better to earn the trophy than anything else. Furthermore, only one team, Ohio in 2005, has won the tournament without earning a first-round bye. Under the current system, Ohio would have had a bye. In other words, don't expect an underperforming team to suddenly figure everything out and set The Q on fire. Teams that play the best over the course of the season are almost always the same ones playing for the title in the end. An unexpected team can find itself playing on Championship Saturday, though. Miami made runs to the championship game in 2000 and 2001 as the #9 and #8 seed, respectively, and Toledo charged to the finals as the #7 team in 2006. Ultimately, though, they fell to a team seeded second or first.
Axiom #3: It's tough to beat a team the third time.
This one is heard everywhere and seems to be uttered by everyone. On the surface, why would it be any harder to beat a team the third time than the first two? If anything; it's easier. Teams that won the first two meetings against an opponent took the third game an overwhelming 87% of the time (20 of 23). Some of the three-game sweeps are at the expense of bottom-feeders that were beaten by top seeds. What is telling, however, is that two finals have been played in which one team swept the regular season series against the other (Ohio/Buffalo in 2005, Akron/Kent in 2008). In both cases, the team that won the first two games won the third as well. This trend holds among the top-seeded teams that run into each other in the latter stages of the tournament.
As the week progresses, tournament talk is sure to fire up around downtown Cleveland. Just remember: Barroom wisdom might just be the opposite of the truth. |
