MAC Week 6 Power Check PDF Print E-mail
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Image Back in January, Ken Pomeroy ran 10,000 simulated seasons for every conference and ranked them by COMPETITIVENESS. Guess which one finished #1? (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/pre-conference_blowout_part_2/)
That's right! The MAC had five teams winning at least 10% of the championships; no other conference had four. The portents of a wide-open race have come to bear -- a half-game Golden Flashes lead feels big-, though not in the way we suspected.

 
While few are surprised to see Kent State atop the standings, few expected Miami to occupy second place, and certainly even less thought Bowling Green would be just a game and a half back with two-thirds of the season behind us. And how many anticipated Ball State to fall out of first place after sprinting to a 5-0 start? Anything goes as divisional foes fulfill the back end of the home-and-home round-robin.
 
1. Kent State (17-7, 8-2) (LW: 1)
Geno Ford's charges face a daunting week: Oxford on Wednesday, Philadelphia on Friday, then Kalamazoo on Monday. Even though it's on TV, if I were Ford, I would let the bench try to slay the Dragons and let my starters rest in Friday’s largely irrelevant BracketBusters game. After that, though, it's relatively smooth sailing with three of the last four at home. The Flashes have won six in a row and have a Player of the Year favorite in Justin Greene. MAC opponents have an effective field goal percentage of just 45.7%.
This week: @Miami (Wednesday), @Drexel (Friday)
 
2. Buffalo (15-8, 7-4) (LW: 2)
Big misstep at Ypsilanti , where the Bulls didn't look particularly interested in fighting for a win. There are some fun mirror parallels between Buffalo and Kent . By Pomeroy's system, UB has the top offense and 4th defense, Kent the best defense and 4th offense. Kent holds opponents to the lowest eFG% while Buffalo shoots the highest. Only one team fouls less than Kent , while only one team fouls more than Buffalo . Buffalo even has its own strong POY candidate in Byron Mulkey.
But enough of comparisons, the Bulls own the MAC's highest eFG%, points per weighted shot, and true shooting percentage. The only shooting category they don't lead is free throws, where they are 4th (72.3%). But they need to reinforce a recently-sagging defense; they allowed Eastern Michigan their best offensive performance of the season against a team outside Toledo .
This week: Ohio (Tuesday), Milwaukee (Saturday)
 
3. Miami (13-12, 8-3) (LW: 3)
The RedHawks' latest daring escape puts them in second place in the East, but I can't help but shake the feeling they've about run out of rabbits in their hat. An effort Wednesday even vaguely resembling what they gave in Toledo will dig them in a deep hole. They don't hold on to the ball, turning it over 22.9% of the time, and they don't force turnovers (16% opponent turnover rate). The defense isn't good, either, so what is the strength? Rebounding. Miami is second in defensive rebounding and third in offensive rebounding.
This week: Kent State (Wednesday), @James Madison (Saturday)
 
4. Western Michigan (13-10, 6-4) (LW: 6)
And suddenly, the Broncos lead the West. Assured of at least a split in the East, don't overlook their chances of bumping off Kent State ; WMU is the MAC's best on the offensive glass and Kent is the worst at defensive rebounding. Western wins are not picturesque, but this is an improving squad with just a single senior on the roster. There's not much shooting to be found right now, though Juwan Howard Jr. can get hot. The defense is hit or miss, and that has to concern Steve Hawkins.
This week: @Northern Illinois (Tuesday), Illinois State (Saturday)
 
5. Bowling Green (12-13, 7-4) (LW: 4)
I'm reminded of the 2007-08 Falcons, a squad that posted an unremarkable 5-7 record in non-conference play before jumping to a 5-2 start to the MAC season, then fading to a 7-9 finish. I'm not saying BG will drop all five of its remaining conference games, but they have a -0.1 scoring margin and the defense, which carried them early, has started to spring leaks. That's running alongside an offense that has fallen off a cliff (.940 points per offensive possession against Ball State is the best they've managed in the last four games). And now they have to play an Akron team that hasn't lost in Anderson Arena since 2003.
This week: Akron (Tuesday), @ Youngstown State (Saturday)
 
6. Akron (15-10, 6-5) (LW: 8)
I feel like the Zips are destined to trade places with Ohio in the East basement a couple more times before the season is through. Numbers against the West suggest improved defense, and the eyes suggest the same. But the defense was never really the problem; it's been the offense. They're not shooting the ball particularly better and the uncharacteristically-good offensive rebounding performance against Ball State (41%) made them look better than they really are. If they can put up points against the better defenses of the East, we'll talk.
This week: @Bowling Green (Tuesday), Creighton (Saturday)
 
7. Ohio (12-13, 5-6) (LW: 7)
The Bobcat offense is roaring, scoring at least a point per offensive possession in six of the last seven games and sliding into second place in efficiency. The defense, however, remains a liability. The East torched the 'Cats the first time around and while the effort has gotten better, it will take a massive improvement to result in wins.
This week: @Buffalo (Tuesday), @Winthrop (Saturday)
 
8. Ball State (14-10, 6-5) (LW: 5)
Cardinal fans are all too aware of this, but the signs are pointing to a third consecutive stumble to the finish, with this year's starting earlier than ever. To say BSU got exposed by the East is an understatement; they were less successful in inter-divisional play than Western, Central, and Eastern Michigan and just as successful as Northern Illinois . Three of their four losses were by double-digits. They have time to right the ship before heading to Kalamazoo , though.
This week: Toledo (Tuesday), @Wofford (Saturday)
 
9. Eastern Michigan (7-17, 4-7) (LW: 10)
The polar opposite of Ohio , the Eagles are 10th in offense and 2nd in defense. How bad is their offense? They have scored a point per offensive possession a grand total of three times this year. It isn't Brandon Bowdry's fault, that's for sure. He has 12 double-doubles this year and is drawing 7.4 fouls per 40 minutes, 19th-best in the country.
This week: @Central Michigan (Wednesday), Jacksonville State (Saturday)
 
10. Central Michigan (7-17, 4-7)
Trey Zeigler has twice in the past month earned a 0 efficiency rating in a game then gone out the next time and had a big game. After a terrible showing at Buffalo , he shot 8-13, pulled down 8 rebounds, blocked 1, dished 1, and lost 1 against Bowling Green . What is it about the number 0 that attracts volume shooters? Gilbert Arenas, Armon Bassett, and now Zeigler.
This week: Eastern Michigan (Wednesday), @Niagara (Saturday)
 
11. Northern Illinois (7-16, 3-8) (LW: 9)
You know a fan-base is traumatized when they declare defeat at the first opportunity. The team, though, mounted a few comeback attempts Saturday instead of rolling over. The Huskies are strangely uninterested in turnovers. They don't commit them (16.8% turnover rate), but they don't force them, either (15% opponent turnover rate). A recent NBA scout told ESPN.com he was unimpressed with Xavier Silas because the senior didn't make his teammates better. I ask the scout, who exactly is he supposed to make better on this team?
This week: Western Michigan (Tuesday), Seattle (Saturday)
 
12. Toledo (4-21, 1-10) (LW: 12)
The Rockets improbably held a late lead against Miami only to surrender a 9-0 run to lose in the final seconds. Ouch. Toledo doesn't quite represent complete basketball futility. They are last in defensive efficiency (1.059 D-PPP) but 11th in offensive (.884). Even though they're not scoring much, they are second in assisted basket percentage (60.8%). That's a sign of a well-coached team. With more talent, that discipline will pay off. One good thing about the BracketBusters, a concept that has outlived its usefulness, is that UT stands a decent chance to pick up a win this weekend.
This week: @Ball State (Tuesday), Eastern Illinois (Saturday)
 
J. Scott Fitzwater is a regular contributor to MAC Report Online. You can email him at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and follow him on Twitter @jscottfitzwater.

 

 
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