 EDITOR’S NOTE: J. Scott Fitzwater authors the weekly MAC Power Check for MRO during conference play. With a little extra time on his hands this week, he delves into statistics to provide another perspective - this time on the upcoming Akron vs Notre Dame matchup.
Once again, the MAC representative in the NCAA tournament is not given a chance to win. That's not surprising, given the unflattering #15 seed Akron was assigned. It's also not surprising given the Zips opponent. Notre Dame is 25-5 and amassed a 14-4 record in the meat grinder known as the Big East.
IRISH NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
They also have two strong non-conference wins (Wisconsin and Gonzaga) despite a 246th non-conference strength of schedule). All of their losses were to NCAA tournament teams. Ultimately, they had a strong resume for a #1 seed.
Open and shut case, right? It's a Fighting Irish romp? Not necessarily.
First, points deducted for scheduling. I have little respect for teams that refuse to play a true road game before conference play, and the Irish did just that. They won the Old Spice Classic on a neutral floor and played one semi-away game against Kentucky in Louisville (lost 72-58), but other than that, it was a cupcake feast in South Bend.
Second, the DJ has played this song before. They load up on home wins, play competitively in the Big East, win a game in the BE tournament... then flame out on opening weekend.
This season hasn’t exactly the same. They haven't played this well in the conference in quite some time, and this is probably the best team since Austin Carr wore the navy and gold. But sometimes, your identity is your identity, and no number of cosmetic changes will make a difference. Is this program a true March contender? They've yet to show it. Forgive me for not jumping on the Irish bandwagon; too much history cautions me otherwise.
MARSHALL COULD BE A ‘BIG’ FACTOR
Third, Akron is not your run-of-the-mill No.15 team. I don't need to run down the Zips' roster for the umpteenth time. Just know that the Irish won't throw out anyone listed taller than 6'9” and Zeke Marshall should be able to own the paint. Yes, there are several forwards that outweigh him, but do they really want to risk creating a lot of fouls by making it a physical game?
Expect a lot of love to be thrown Ben Hansbrough's way (announcers LOVE Hansbroughs). After all, he's a 44.1percent three-point shooter. A stone cold assassin from deep? Maybe not. At home, he shoots 46 percent. On the road, 42.9 percent. Most importantly, on a neutral court he connects at a 37.5 percent rate.
By no means do I advocate letting him bomb away from outside, but I also don't think he's cause for a sleepless night for Keith Dambrot. Tim Abromaitis, ND's other marksman, has similar splits. At home, he's 45.4 percent from three. On the road, it’s 37.8 percent. On neutral floors, he sinks 36percent. Abromaitis tends to be streaky. If he's not hitting early, he probably won't find the bottom of the net later on.
NASH UNDER-RATED?
But forward Tyrone Nash is a very real threat. He doesn't take a lot of shots (5.75 per game), but he makes them at a 49 percent clip and is a wiz at getting to the line (second in the nation in FT rate).
Notre Dame’s other forwards, Scott Martin, Carleton Scott, and Jack Cooley (great name) are all very good shooters at close range. Martin and Scott aren't afraid to try their hands at threes, but they should be. I would be shocked if Dambrot doesn't play heavy zone and dare the Irish to beat them from outside.
IRISH LOVE THE CHARITY STRIPE
Obviously, the Zips need to take advantage of their free throws. They got away with shooting sub-50 percent in the MAC championship, but that's a risk you don't want to take again. ND is sixth in the nation in fouls per game (15.0), so it's possible they won’t get many chances. That magnifies the few shots they might end up getting. On the other side, the Irish are a good free throw shooting team (72.5 percent), though Hansbrough's 81.4 percent is inflated by his home split.
ND is one of the country's best in taking care of the ball, registering a 15.6percent turnover rate (11th in the country). But the Zips are pretty good at taking the ball away (20 percent opponent turnover rate, 94th nationally). If Akron can force some turnovers, that will help a lot. Neither team is particularly good at offensive rebounding.
Defensively, ND allows 0.975 points per defensive possession. In Big East play, that number was 1.027. Good offenses can torch the Irish defense; their overall D-PPP number was built partially on games against some woeful offensive teams. Akron's not great offensively (1.011 O-PPP), but it has the capability to play at a level the Irish defense can't handle.
What’s a winning Akron scenario? How about this: If Marshall stays on the floor and anchors a tough Akron interior defense, ND can't get it going from the outside, and Steve McNees goes on one of his patented point binges, another MAC win over Big East opponent is very possible.
|
