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 If you have read these rankings or have followed me on Twitter the last year or two, you might remember my prediction that 2011-12 was the MAC's year. Lots of experienced teams, good recruiting, some needed stability, and maybe even a little luck would make this the best year for the conference since 2005. Then Kent State goes and beats West Virginia and Akron takes down Mississippi State. I go all-in! This is the year!!
Alas, not so much. Still, we're looking at a better conference than we've been treated to the last handful of seasons; the MAC's RPI currently sits at 14, the best since 2007-08 and a significant improvement from the so-bad-let's-not-talk-about it 2008-09 season, when it finished an ignoble 21. There are some genuinely good teams, too -- a welcome change.
For those of you who like to keep track of such things, my preseason predictions were:
EAST
Kent State (overall champion)
Akron
Ohio
Miami
Buffalo
Bowling Green
WEST
Ball State
Western Michigan
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Toledo
Northern Illinois
Now, onto the present. Here are the new rankings:
1. Akron (20-6, 2-0)
The Zips are not a consistent team by any stretch of the imagination, but right now they're playing well. I won't harp on the home VCU loss because of the trouncing they put on Marshall, but the top of the MAC is as good as the Rams. If you want to win the East, you're going to have to beat teams of that caliber on your home floor. Plus, they opened conference play with a road win, which, you know, none of their rivals did. As always, Keith Dambrot has his men playing tenacious defense (0.918 points per defensive possession, 67th nationally). What might escape notice is the excellent three-point shooting; as a team, UA is 40percent, 16th in the country. Alex Abreu does not look too hampered by recent surgery and has taken a big step forward this year. If you're not looking forward to his duel with DJ Cooper, well, I don't know what to tell you.
This weekend: Ohio (Saturday)
2. Kent State (11-4, 1-1)
The Golden Flashes aren't likely to take another trip to Utah anytime soon, and the late scoring drought at Buffalo was not uncharacteristic of this offensively-struggling team. But it's hard to imagine such a veteran, deep team that plays such good defense not figuring things out. I expect Carlton Guyton to start making shots (45 percent from the field and 40.1 percent from three last season, 38.1 percent and 31.6 percent this season), which will open a lot of things up for everyone else. At some point, Rob Senderoff will find a way to get Justin Greene more shots. At some point, KSU is going to rip off 6-8 games in a row and people will somehow be surprised.
This weekend: Bowling Green (Saturday)
3. Ohio (13-3, 1-1)
Robert Morris and Bowling Green showed that if you can gunk up the Bobcats' offense, they don't know what to do. In fairness to them, they also missed a lot of open shots in those two losses. The offense isn't a problem; you can't keep that much firepower down for long. It's the defense. No team in the nation is better at forcing turnovers, and for much of the season, OU was backing that up with contested shots. However, they've allowed three of their last four opponents to shoot better than 50 percent from the field and their rebounding woes have resurfaced. These are focus issues that can be fixed, but there doesn't seem to be a cure for their poor free throw shooting (66 percent) and their constantly sending opponents to the line (20 fouls per game). It's also unclear how they will handle East teams with significantly better frontcourts than theirs.
This weekend: @Akron (Saturday)
4. Buffalo (8-5, 1-1)
I hear you, Bulls fans. You're not getting the respect you deserve and I'm not helping. You had Temple dead to rights, gave BYU a closer game than the score indicates, and blew out Dayton. Even the loss to St. Bonaventure isn't as bad as feared. But there are some unimpressive performances in there, too. You nearly blew it at Niagara and never really put away Youngstown State or Saint Peter's like a good team should. Coaches in the MAC know how to defend Zach Filzen; can any other guards step up? That's the key.
This weekend: @Miami (Saturday)
5. Ball State (10-4, 2-0)
I'm not a believer in the Cardinals. The pieces, it seems, are there, but the parts are greater than the whole. Encouraging showings at Arizona and the win over Butler are more than counterbalanced by the losses to IUPUI and Morehead State. Having to fight for their lives at Toledo doesn't inspire much confidence. But, as always, someone has to win the West. BSU can still live up their potential and they clearly have the most talent in their division. Hard to see anyone stopping Jarrod Jones. He's shooting 56 percent from the floor and 83.3 percent at the line. He'll get you either way.
This week: Eastern Michigan (Saturday)
6. Bowling Green (7-8, 1-1)
For at least one game, the Falcons carried over some of that Anderson Arena magic to the Stroh Center. But you have to think that if BG is ever to make a run with Louis Orr, it has to be this year, right? Scott Thomas, Dee Brown, and new NCAA record holder Torian Oglesby are seniors. Jordon Crawford and A'uston Calhoun are experienced juniors. It will be a struggle just to finish in the top half of the East, though. They don't have much offense to speak of (213rd nationally in offensive points per possession at 0.961) and, while they defend OK (0.974 D-PPP), it's just not as good as other MAC East teams. They do turn teams over a lot (23percent TO rate), which always comes in handy.
This weekend: @Kent State (Saturday)
7. Central Michigan (7-8, 2-0)
It's hard to argue against a guard shooting 49.4percent from the floor, which is what Trey Zeigler is doing. How he's only shooting 55.7 percent from the charity stripe is a mystery. Senior forward Andre Coimbra is making a solid 48percent of his attempts from the field, but the rest of the Chippewas are shooting challenged. It's a crowded backcourt at CMU; nobody is going to take Zeigler's minutes, but Derek Jackson is facing a serious challenge for playing time from freshmen Austins McBroom and Keel. Of course, with how bad the frontcourt is, it might not be the worst idea in the world to go small with four guards and Coimbra sometimes.
This weekend: @Northern Illinois (Saturday)
8. Western Michigan (7-9, 1-1)
The Broncos are the toughest team to figure out right now. They played an absolutely brutal schedule (#10 in strength of schedule as of this typing) and spent the first month of the season traipsing about the country taking beatings. They're also undefeated at home and smashed Oakland on the road. They also didn't give Ball State too much reason to sweat, save for a late run that stopped short.
This weekend: Toledo (Saturday)
9. Miami (4-10, 0-2)
This is not the way we want Charlie Coles to go out (and I will be surprised if he doesn't retire after this season, though I feel like I've been saying that for five years now). Three of his four starters, Orlando Williams, Allen Roberts, and Bill Edwards, won't see the floor again this season. After a promising start beating Dayton and pushing Xavier, desultory losses to Southeast Missouri, Wright State, and Troy followed. Sure, they caught Belmont sleeping, but they also struggled to defeat a bad William and Mary team. It's hard to blame a coach too much when so much out of his control has gone wrong, but it's completely appropriate to question his usage of Julian Mavunga. Possibly the MAC's best player, he played all 40 minutes in four of the last five games, including a 29-point blowout at Ohio State? I can't think of a plausible reason to wear him like this
This weekend: Buffalo (Saturday)
10. Toledo (8-8, 0-2)
Criticize the non-conference schedule if you like, but the Rockets are a legitimate Division I team again, and that's something worth celebrating. It was easy to assume the wins would stop coming once MAC play arrived, but UT gave Ball State everything it could handle. Given the weakness of the West, a top-half finish is not an unreasonable proposition.
This weekend: @Western Michigan (Saturday)
11. Eastern Michigan (6-10, 1-1)
Rob Murphy has a lot of work to do, but the EMU program is in much better shape than the one they defeated last weekend. I just hope the Eagles don't plan on using every second of the shot clock on every possession (62.4, 331st nationally in possessions/40 minutes). Eastern ground out a mere 59.4 possessions against Northern Illinois. Nobody wants pages from the Bo Ryan playbook.
This weekend: @Ball State (Saturday)
12. Northern Illinois (1-13, 0-2)
Losing to EMU at home raises the very real possibility for a 0-16 MAC campaign for the Huskies. There are 344 full D-I teams, and NIU ranks 343rd in turnover rate (26.1percent), points per weighted shot (0.85) and O-PPP (0.776). They are dead last in floor percentage (31percent). I feel for Tony Nixon and especially Tim Toler and Tyler Storm, who probably thought things would get better after Ricardo Patton's departure. But it's going to be a long rebuild in DeKalb.
This weekend: Central Michigan (Saturday)
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