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 Ball State never has it easy!
We all take for granted the meat grinder that is the East. But while the Cardinals have been favorites in the West for a few years now, they have never established themselves in the supposedly less competitive division. Relative divisional strength should get some substance this week as interdivisional play starts.
Yes, they don't always win the games they're expected to win, but there's always a team that rises up and challenges them -- and it always seems to come from Michigan. Few, if anyone, expected the Eastern Michigan Eagles to be in first place after the first round of intra-divisional play, yet that's exactly where they are. Can they keep it up?
1. Akron (12-7, 4-1) LW: 1
The Zips really could not have asked for a better swing through the East. A game up in first, two road wins, and three home games down the stretch. I touched on UA's newcomers last week; over the weekend, Nick Harney and Demetrius Treadwell were tremendous in the victory over Kent State. Keith Dambrot has gotten his players to coalesce into a team with considerable mental toughness. All nine players in the rotation can be expected to contribute on a given night. If Harney can continue to develop as a scorer, this is a no-doubt-about-it complete team, one ready to make some noise in the BracketBuster. They just need an opportunity. They arguably drew the toughest West schedule, though, and trips to Muncie and Kalamazoo won't be cakewalks. A strong win Tuesday would erase any doubts that might remain. The one bugaboo other than free throw shooting (66.2 percent): UA is turning the ball over in 20.8 percent of conference games. That could use improvement.
This week: @Ball State (Tuesday), @Central Michigan (Saturday)
2. Ohio (15-4, 3-2) LW: 3
Not a complete effort in either game last week, but the Bobcats did enough to win twice. Still, it's encouraging to see offense coming from OU; they posted 1.254 and 1.116 points per offensive possession in their games. One reason for the increased production was a shift in strategy- instead of bombing away from the perimeter like they've been doing most of the season, they pounded the ball inside and earned 51 free throw attempts on the week. Not bad for a frontcourt that lacks the size of their rivals'. While Miami shot insanely well Saturday, OU maintains a strong defensive profile, allowing only 0.937 points per defensive possession in MAC games. Their near-future schedule sets them up well to maintain pace with Akron or take advantage of a Zip slip.
This week: Western Michigan (Wednesday), Ball State (Saturday)
3. Buffalo (9-6, 3-2) LW: 4
All things considered, 3-2 isn't bad for the Bulls after sneaking out of Bowling Green with a win. Like Akron, they only have two East roadies left, so they're positioned well for a strong finishing run. And like Ohio, they have a favorable interdivisional schedule. No idea whether Zach Filzen will be a factor; after a 21-point outburst against Akron, he disappeared again at BG. And while we're all aware of Javon McCrea's excellence, how about Mitchell Watt? He's scored in double figures in all five conference games while shooting 57.8 percent with 36 rebounds and 13 blocks. He could be making a case for first team all-MAC.
This week: Eastern Michigan (Tuesday), @Northern Illinois (Saturday)
4. Kent State (12-6, 2-3) LW: 2
It's gut check time for the Golden Flashes after two poor, soft second halves on the road. It's easy to dismiss the Ohio loss as falling victim to a hot-shooting team and the Akron loss as their rival defending home court. But those were both games they could have won and instead they ran up the white flag. This is the exact opposite of what KSU basketball has been the last decade-plus, and it is surprising from such a veteran team. There's still plenty of time to turn it around and they still get OU and UA at home, but they need to dig deeper.
This week: Northern Illinois (Wednesday), @Toledo (Saturday)
5. Ball State (12-5, 4-1) LW: 5
Two convincing wins on the road go a long way to establishing the Cardinals as the West favorites. They even thumped Central Michigan despite an off night from Jarrod Jones. A 1-5 showing against the East last year sunk BSU. If you don't consider Eastern Michigan a true contender for the West, then BSU has some margin for error. And that's good, because the Cards simply haven't shown they're good enough to win more than a game or two against the East. The schedule does them few favors, too.
This week: Akron (Tuesday), @Ohio (Saturday)
6. Bowling Green (8-10, 2-3) LW: 8
The Falcons won just one of their three home games, which can't inspire a lot of confidence if you're a BG fan. The silver lining is that they lost both those games at the buzzer. This seems to pretty well summarize BG: They're good enough to compete but not good enough yet to get over the hump. One thing they do well is rebounding. In conference games, they're getting back 37.3 percent of their misses. They don't shoot the three much (66 attempts in 5 games), but they're making them at a 38.2 percent rate (second in the conference).
This week: Central Michigan (Wednesday), @Eastern Michigan (Saturday)
7. Eastern Michigan (9-10, 4-1) LW: 10
Raise your hand if you saw this coming. Rob Murphy must have read Brad Gilbert's Winning Ugly because that's exactly what EMU does. In MAC play, the Eagles are averaging a paint-drying 59.6 possessions per 40 minutes and shooting 39.3 percent from the field. But they've been able to drag other West teams into the miasma and suffocate them. Overall, EMU allowed 0.958 D-PPP. In conference games? 0.787, the best average by a considerable margin. They kept three teams out of five to less than 50 points. But if you look at their entire season's results, you'll see this method has not worked against better teams. And the East, of course, is a notable step up in quality. So this could be their season's nadir right now. Margin of victory would certainly suggest so; their last three wins were by three points each. We'll see what happens when Bowling Green comes to town. But first, I'm interested to see what happens when they visit the MAC's fastest team, Buffalo.
This week: @Buffalo (Tuesday), Bowling Green (Saturday)
8. Western Michigan (9-10, 3-2) LW: 6
It might not look like it, but there are signs the Broncos are playing better. For instance, they're producing 1.024 O-PPP in MAC games (3rd). They're a mediocre shooting team from the field (45 percent), but they get it done at the line (74.3 percent) and give themselves second chances (38.3 offensive rebound percentage). It's not pretty, but it's effective. Ball movement also helps (63.6 assisted basket percentage). They also man the defensive glass well (72.4 percent) and defend the shot well (39.1 opponent FG percentage), but they don't force turnovers (13 percent).
This week: @Ohio (Wednesday), Miami (Saturday)
9. Miami (5-12, 1-4) LW: 7
Could this be the worst RedHawks team in history. Twenty losses look likely -- unheard of in Oxford. While a great many Miami fans are depressed, there is reason to hold on to optimism for the future. Freshman Brian Sullivan has emerged as a very good shooter (45.6 percent from three), can create his own shot, and will be a serious outside threat for his entire career. Drew McGhee continues to improve. Josh Sewell won't stay in the doghouse forever. Bill Edwards will be back. Jon Harris is quietly effective as a shooter. There are some building blocks here. If Quinten Rollins cuts down on the turnovers, he'll be one of them, too.
This week: Toledo (Wednesday), @Western Michigan (Saturday)
10. Central Michigan (7-11, 2-3) LW: 9
Well, we have our answer: The Chippewas are not contenders. Trey Zeigler and Derek Jackson take most of the shots when they're on the floor, and that's just not working, especially with Jackson shooting 40.2 percent from the field and Zeigler bricking a ton of free throws (116 attempts, making 55.2 percent of them). They're also surrendering 1.017 D-PPP against the West.
This week: @Bowling Green (Wednesday), Akron (Saturday)
11. Toledo (9-10, 1-4) LW: 11
The Rockets had the opportunity to gather some momentum for the move east but dropped a heartbreaker to EMU. Aside from Temple and Cleveland State, the East has the best competition UT will see this year. And that's bad news, as UT really struggled to put offense together against the West (0.915 O-PPP). Can they stay positive and remember the early-season success? Rian Pearson continues to impress; can he get the voters' attention for what looks to be some deserved accolades?
This week: @Miami (Wednesday), Kent State (Saturday)
12. Northern Illinois (2-15, 1-4) LW: 12
When it rains, it pours. Tim Toler will sit out this week for missing a class, giving the Huskie pups more time to season. There aren't really any bright spots in DeKalb right now other than Monty Montgomery, who looks like he can build this program (though sophomore Aksel Bolin is showing potential). They do a couple things decently, though: Turning opponents over (20 percent, fifth in the MAC) and shooting the three (35.6 percent, sixth).
This week: @Kent State (Wednesday), Buffalo (Saturday)
J. Scott Fitzwater is a regular contributor to MAC Report Online. You can email him at
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