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 The gap between the haves and the have-nots is growing. And, unsurprisingly, the East has a lot more than the West. The East holds an 8-3 edge in interdivisional play and it does not appear that gap will close over the next two weeks. It will probably widen. But we did find out a few things last week: For instance, Eastern Michigan can hang, Kent State is bad at rebounding, and Ball State still can't beat the East. At this point, there aren't many unanswered questions other than, “How will this end?”
Statistics will be for conference games only unless otherwise noted. Let's dig in:
1. Akron (14-7, 6-1) LW: 1
The Zips keep rolling. Really, the only complaint is that they let Central Michigan back into the game on Saturday, but at no point did I think they would surrender the lead. Here's an advantage that's sure to annoy fans of every other team: They have attempted the most free throws (161) and have allowed the fewest attempts (105) of any team. A big part of that is Zeke Marshall, who has cut down on the fouling. He fouled out in four of the first seven games of the season and only once since. This has allowed him to play more minutes. And when he's on the floor, teams do not want to drive the paint on a guy who has a block rate of 9.1 percent, 11th-best in the nation, so they draw fewer fouls. Marshall's also drawing more fouls than he has before. He has 94 FTA's for the entire season so far, just 11 off last year's total. He's attempted more than 10 twice in the seven games so far, so I think he'll get there. UA now sits second in offensive efficiency (1.042 points per possession, which shows you how offensively-challenged the MAC is this season).
This week: Toledo (Wednesday), Eastern Michigan (Saturday)
2. Buffalo (11-6, 5-2) LW: 3
Scoring margin matters and the Bulls are the MAC's leader (+5.5). UB also has two road wins, vaulting them over an Ohio team with zero. Zach Filzen loves playing the West. Last season, he torched left side opponents from deep, shooting 44.2 percent. This year, he's off to an even better start (9-19). When he's on, that opens up the inside for the formidable duo of Mitchell Watt and Javon McCrea, making UB very tough to stop... unless you start looking for turnovers. The Bulls are coughing it up 24 percent of the time. They shoot it well enough, are tied for third in offensive rebounding percentage (34.8 percent), and are second in defensive efficiency (0.882 points per possession) so keeping the rock is really the only thing stopping them.
This week: Ball State (Wednesday), @Toledo (Saturday)
3. Ohio (17-4, 5-2) LW: 2
The Bobcats got the requisite home sweep, but the manner in which those wins came is a concern. They answered the bell against Kent State, but against Western Michigan and Ball State, they let teams hang around far too long. John Groce pointed out those were games last season's team would have lost, which is true. Is it a case of merely playing down to competition? Could be, as their level against the conference's best was considerably higher than they showed last week. The big problem is zone defense- they can't score against it. No coach should be showing a man-to-man because OU can tear it to shreds. Bring out the zone, though, and watch them demonstrate their inability to attack it. Part of the reason is that they can't shoot (43.9 effective field goal percentage). They continue to win with defense (0.907 D-PPP) spearheaded by forcing turnovers (27 percent of opponent possessions, best in the nation).
This week: @Northern Illinois (Wednesday), Central Michigan (Saturday)
4. Kent State (14-6, 4-3) LW: 4
The Golden Flashes haven't lost to the West since Feb. 2, 2008 when Toledo scored a last-second basket to secure an upset. Now, KSU has to maintain their streak just to tread water in the East. But let's talk about rebounding. The Flashes are fine on the offensive glass (32.1 percent, 7th in the conference) but absolutely, inexplicably awful at defensive rebounding. They are securing just 56.3 percent of opponent misses, far and away the worst in the MAC. Bowling Green is in 11th place at 64.8, an 8.5 point difference. To put this in perspective, that's a bigger gap than No. 1 Northern Illinois (74.1 percent) to No. 9 Toledo (66 percent). That's a staggering disadvantage in an important aspect of the game. On the positive side, they have the MAC's best offense (1.098 O-PPP), thanks to excellent shooting (54.6 eFG percentage) and a low turnover rate (17 percent).
This week: @Central Michigan (Wednesday), Western Michigan (Saturday)
5. Eastern Michigan (10-11, 5-2) LW: 7
After beating Bowling Green, it's time to give the Eagles their due. They're vulnerable against teams that shoot well from three (see the Buffalo game) but otherwise, this is a rapidly-improving team that has really taken to the 2-3 zone. EMU is the MAC's top defense (0.821 D-PPP) and are so good at it they overcome a really bad offense (0.838 O-PPP). Everyone needs to take the Eagles seriously. This ranking is probably their ceiling (though I've already said such a thing this season), but it's a pretty high ceiling. They're a breathtakingly-bad shooting team-- nobody with 25 shot attempts for the whole season is even shooting 42 percent from the field. And if you can get them out of their tar pit-esque pace (60.1 possessions/40), they're in trouble. But hey, they keep winning. It doesn't matter if I think it's partially smoke in mirrors, as last season's Miami team showed me. I don't know why, but I love dissecting this team and could probably write an entire essay on them. A big question: Can DaShonte Riley get going? Only shooting 40.4 percent from the field (ghastly for a big man) and pulling down 4.5 rebounds per game (ditto), he doesn't get involved too much (4.72 shots per game for the entire season) and needs to put some weight on. But there is talent there and he's seven feet tall. Promising combo.
This week: @Miami (Wednesday), @Akron (Saturday)
6. Bowling Green (9-11, 3-4) LW: 6
You really don't know what you're going to get with Jordon Crawford. He was superb against Central Michigan (6-10 shooting, 7 assists) and less so in Ypsilanti (2-7 shooting, 3 turnovers, 5 fouls). Here's his efficiency numbers by game: 15, 0, 13, 24, 1, 16, 8. What that suggests to me is that you can usually tell the good or bad Jordon is playing and adjust minutes accordingly. Of course, that assumes there's a dependable alternative, which there might not be. As noted above, the Falcons really struggle to get defensive rebounds (64.8 percent) but they lead the conference in offensive rebounding (37.3 percent). So, if BG rolls into your town, except a lot of second and third chance opportunities -- by both sides.
This week: @Western Michigan (Wednesday), Northern Illinois (Saturday)
7. Ball State (12-7, 4-3) LW: 5
The Cardinals are third in offensive efficiency (1.011 O-PPP) but I can't figure out how. Obviously, the sheer brilliance of Jarrod Jones counts for a lot. Chris Bond is a fine second forward. It's the guards that get me. Randy Davis knows how to deliver the ball where it needs to be, but he's only shooting 37 percent from the field. In fact, BSU's best-shooting guard is Tyrae Robinson, and he clocks in at 40.3 percent. So the frontcourt carries the load with help from free throw production. The Cardinals get to the line fairly often (20.7 attempts per game) and convert 72.4 percent of those tries.
This week: @Buffalo (Wednesday), Miami (Saturday)
8. Western Michigan (10-11, 4-3) LW: 8
The Broncos seem to play the same game no matter who their opponent is. Get to the line, get rebounds, lose the turnover battle, wonder who is going to be held out of the game and for what reason, hang around longer than the other team's fans thought you would. WMU won't be an easy out for East teams, especially if they keep the ball hot (63.9 assisted basket percentage).
This week: Bowling Green (Wednesday), @Kent State (Saturday)
9. Toledo (10-11, 2-5) LW: 11
Congratulations to the Rockets for their first road MAC win since 2008. It's been a long time coming. The Rockets don't have a decently winnable game until they renew pleasantries with Bowling Green next week. By the way, Rian Pearson is very quietly the conference's leading scorer.
This week: @Akron (Wednesday), Buffalo (Saturday)
10. Miami (5-14, 1-6) LW: 9
Another statistical quirk: The RedHawks have attempted more threes (148) than anyone and had fewer attempted against them (80) than anyone. That's probably because opponents don't need to shoot the three much; Miami's allowing teams to shoot 52.3 percent inside the arc. They're the MAC's second-slowest team (62.7 poss/40) and host the Eagles Wednesday. WMU and Toledo combined for 79 points Jan. 21. Are you taking the over or under on that one?
This week: Eastern Michigan (Wednesday), @Ball State (Saturday)
11. Central Michigan (7-13, 2-5) LW: 10
The Chippewas are the MAC's worst shooting defense team, allowing opponents an eFG of 55.8 percent. They're in the bottom four in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, free throws attempted, eFG percentage and dead last in assisted basket percentage and opponent free throw attempts. They do have the best turnover rate (16.3 percent) and are fourth in opponent turnover rate (24.1 percent), though.
This week: Kent State (Wednesday), @Ohio (Saturday)
12. Northern Illinois (2-17, 1-6) LW: 12
Dismissing Tim Toler, is one of those moves that might hurt a program in the short term and make it better in the long run. Freshman forward Abdel Nader is shooting the ball a lot; he hasn't taken fewer than 10 attempts since Jan. 11 against Eastern Michigan. His usage rate is 34.7 percent, 6th highest in the country. Success has been random; after going 9-20 against Ball State, he was 2-23 last week. Still, a good number of Huskie fans see a lot of potential in the Skokie, Ill., native.
This week: Ohio (Wednesday), @ Bowling Green (Saturday).
J. Scott Fitzwater is a regular contributor to MAC Report Online. You can follow him on Twitter @jscottfitzwater and email him at
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