The East took all 12 games last week, running its cumulative record against the West to 21-3. And really, most of the games weren't even competitive. Saturday's contests were decided by an average of 16.5 points, remarkable considering that included two overtime games. Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, and Ohio are all 4-0 against the West this year, which makes this week fun for their fans as they all see who, if anyone, is going to blink.
The next two games look like the calm before the storm. As always, stats are for conference play-only unless otherwise noted.
1. Akron (16-7, 8-1) LW: 1
The Zips have a chance to be the first team to earn a 10-1 conference record since the 2006 Kent State Golden Flashes. You have to like their odds; they've dominated Western Michigan, winning six in a row and 10 of the last 11 meetings. One thing that baffles me, though, is the free throw shooting. The Zips top the MAC in effective field goal percentage (54.7), indicating they are a very good shooting team. But they're last from the line (64.2 percent), which doesn't make sense. You can't immediately point to big men, either. For 2011-12, Zeke Marshall (67 percent), Quincy Diggs (68.8 percent), and Nick Harney (68.9 percent) are all better than the team average. Culprits include Nik Cvetinovic (60.6 percent) and Demetrius Treadwell (45.2 percent). Treadwell's poor shooting is particularly painful because he draws a lot of whistles; he, Harney, and Marshall all draw more than five fouls per 40 minutes. Marshall's free throw rate of 68.4, in fact, is 44th in the nation. Keith Dambrot has been slowly increasing first-year man Brian Walsh's minutes. He's earned it, shooting 48.6 percent from three and 82.5 percent from the line. That's a big offensive threat coming off the bench.
This week: @Western Michigan (Wednesday), Northern Illinois (Saturday)
2. Buffalo (14-6, 7-2) LW: 2
The recipe for UB's success is pretty simple: Defend (41.9 eFG against) and rebound (71.9 defensive rebounding percentage). Then, on offense, move the ball around (63.5 assisted basket percentage) and try again if you fail (35.3 offensive rebounding percentage). Easy enough, right? Of course, it helps to have Javon McCrea and Mitchell Watt anchoring the middle with Titus Robinson as a complementary piece. That's three quality rebounders right there. Jarod Oldham rebounds well for a guard, too. By the way, Reggie Witherspoon doesn't get enough credit for producing point guards. They may not be the flashiest point men in the league, but the Bulls always have a solid man in that slot. Oldham is the latest man in that line.
This week: @Central Michigan (Wednesday), Western Michigan (Saturday)
3. Ohio (19-4, 7-2) LW: 3
When the Bobcats are making shots, they're going to be extremely difficult to beat. And they did just that last week. Are they coming around after a cold January, or just taking advantage of defensively inferior teams? Junior guard Walter Offutt has turned it on. After struggling from the field in pre-conference play, he's now shooting 48.7 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from deep. OU hasn't allowed even 0.9 points per defensive possession in West play and now leads the conference in D-PPP (0.879). Versatile sophomore Ricardo Johnson has been seeing an increase in critical minutes and provides a lot of hustle plays. DJ Cooper is top 30 nationally in assist rate (35.6) and steal percentage (4.5).
This week: @Toledo (Wednesday), @Eastern Michigan (Saturday)
4. Kent State (16-6, 6-3) LW: 4
The Golden Flashes are making a habit out of breaking the hearts of Western Michigan fans. But these aren't the Flashes we're used to; instead of making a living on defense, they do it on offense. They lead the MAC in offensive points per possession (1.073) but eighth in D-PPP (1.009). Justin Greene is doing his best to make a case for Player of the Year, shooting 54.2 percent from the field and 80.9 percent from the line to go with 5.7 rebounds and a block per contest. This week could be tricky, as KSU has the top two West teams- both desperate to make a statement.
This week: @Eastern Michigan (Wednesday), Ball State (Saturday)
5. Bowling Green (11-11, 5-4) LW: 6
The Falcons got good performances from Jordon Crawford last week and cruised to two victories. Quietly, BG has formed into a well-rounded unit, third in O-PPP (1.028) and fourth in D-PPP (0.905). The offensive effectiveness is born from balance; Crawford, A'uston Calhoun, Scott Thomas, and Dee Brown share roughly equal loads. The bench plays its part, too. Cameron Black, Craig Sealey and Torian Oglesby are quality offensive rebounders. Black and Oglesby can shoot, too. If freshman point guard Jehvon Clarke can cut down on turning the ball over (he does so 33.2 percent of the time), he'll be a good one. He's unselfish with the ball, shooting it only 18.1 percent of the time, and can create turnovers (3.6 percent steal rate).
This week: @Ball State (Wednesday), Toledo (Saturday)
6. Miami (7-14, 3-6) LW: 10
I cannot, in good conscience, put any West teams in the top six this week. So Miami goes here. But the RedHawks had as impressive a week as they've had all year, crawling back to beat Eastern Michigan and beating Ball State for their first D-I road win of the season. It's a shame Miami has so little depth as they have a very effective one-two punch in Julian Mavunga and Brian Sullivan. First, Sullivan: He is 12th in the nation in eFG (64.7 percent) and 30th in true shooting (64.9), fueled largely by his markmanship from three (49.1 percent). But check out Mavunga: Only three men in the country are playing a larger percentage of minutes. He is 18th nationally in DR percentage (26.6), 21st in free throw rate (73.1), and 25th in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (6.7). On top of that, he's only committing 2.4 fouls per 40 minutes and sports a quality assist rate of 20.3.
This week: @Northern Illinois (Wednesday), Central Michigan (Saturday)
7. Eastern Michigan (10-13, 5-4) LW: 5
The Eagles are licking their wounds after letting victory slip away at Miami and taking a 30-point beating at Akron. The Zips showed EMU can't hang with an opponent able to run and speed up the game. Since November ended, the Eagles are 1-6 when they have 60 more possessions per 40 minutes. Still, EMU is one only of three West teams to even have a victory against the East, so things aren't all that bad. For that matter, they're the only West team with a winning conference record. Neither of this week's opponents want to slow things down, though, so they really have to commit to milking the clock.
This week: Kent State (Wednesday), Ohio (Saturday)
8. Ball State (12-9, 4-5) LW: 7
In 2010, the Cardinals won four in a row against the East. Since then, they've dropped 10 of 11. Once again, they beat the West enough to contend but shoot themselves in the foot against the East. And with the changes to tournament seeding, there is no guaranteed #2 seed and nowhere to hide. They can't afford a face-plant, and that's exactly what they're doing. They've really struggled offensively against the right side of the conference. Saturday's 0.919 O-PPP is their best mark in four tries and the only time they managed 0.9.
This week: Bowling Green (Wednesday), @Kent State (Saturday)
9. Western Michigan (10-13, 4-5) LW: 8
It's hard to believe the team that had Kent State on the ropes in their own gym is the same team that didn't show up for Bowling Green at home. The Broncos had defended home court all year and gave it up rather meekly. Beating Miami gave them the opportunity to recapture at least a share of first place in the West, but it was not to be. The rough-and-tumble Broncos still represent the best spoiler threat in the West with their rebound prowess. It will be interesting to see how things go this week against two teams with quality frontcourts.
This week: Akron (Wednesday), @Buffalo (Saturday)
10. Toledo (10-13, 2-7) LW: 9
The Rockets, quite simply, blew it Saturday. They should have beaten Buffalo. UT isn't a tall team by any means, but that doesn't mean they don't live at the rim. They get a higher percentage of their points from two-pointers (60.5) and a lower percentage from three-pointers (21.5) than any other MAC team. Indeed, they have only attempted 144 shots from behind the arc, 10th in the conference. The problem with this method is that they're not great at two-point shots (48.3 percent) and only get back 29.4 percent of their misses. Still, this is a team with a lot of room to improve. They rank 326th nationally in experience. What's amazing is that they're not last in the MAC in this category.
This week: Ohio (Wednesday), @Bowling Green (Saturday)
11. Northern Illinois (2-19, 1-8) LW: 12
Now THIS is the team last in the conference in experience and it checks in 338th in the country. Remove Tim Toler and that rank probably drops a little more. The Huskies get bumped up a spot because, win or lose, they're going to give you what they got. That usually involves a lot of Abdel Nader. I mentioned this last week. He took 18 shots last week, his lowest weekly total in a month. He currently takes 36.9 percent of his team's shots when he's on the floor, seventh nationally. Can he make it to the top spot?
This week: Miami (Wednesday), @Akron (Saturday)
12. Central Michigan (7-15, 2-7) LW: 11
In contrast to NIU, the Chippewas look like they've ended the season early. Since starting 2-0, CMU has dropped seven straight -- with four of those by double digits. You can slam the door on the Chips early and watch them cruise through the rest of the game, jogging back on defense. Trey Zeigler’s focus seems to drop when he doesn't have the ball. That isn't too often, though. He uses 30.8 percent of his team's possessions, 29th highest in the nation.
This week: Buffalo (Wednesday), @Miami (Saturday)
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